Dozenten: Prof. Dr. T. Leisner, Prof. Dr. P. Braesicke, Prof. Dr. A. Fink, PD Dr. M. Höpfner, Prof. Dr. C. Hoose, Prof. Dr. P. Knippertz, PD Dr. M. Kunz, Prof. Dr. J. Pinto
Veranstaltungskalender
Are equatorial waves a practical source of deterministic sub-seasonal predictive skill? Juliana Dias, Maria Gehne and George Kiladis
Propagating equatorial disturbances such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial waves (CCEW) are often seen as potentially useful for sub-seasonal predictions in the tropics and elsewhere via tropical-to-extratropical teleconnections. Quantifying this potential has been proven difficult in numerical weather prediction systems because tropical sub-seasonal variability tends to be poorly represented in such models. One possible exception is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF), which has been recently shown to have much improved representation of sub-seasonal tropical variability. In this study, we use ECMWF reforecasts to investigate the predicted evolution of CCEW and the MJO and how they might relate to sub-seasonal practical and potential forecast skill. It is shown that systematic model errors in the representation of their amplitude and propagation characteristics strongly limits their role as a deterministic pathway to improve sub-seasonal predictions.
Dr. Juliana Dias
NOAA, USA
IMK-TRO
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
KIT
Wolfgang-Gaede-Str. 1
76131 Karlsruhe
Tel: 0721 608 43356
E-Mail: imk-tro ∂does-not-exist.kit edu
https://www.imk-tro.kit.edu
Hinweise
"CS" - KIT-Campus Süd (Universität), Gebäude 30.23 (Physikhochhaus), Seminarraum 13/2
"CN" - KIT-Campus Nord (Forschungszentrum), Gebäude 435 (IMK), Raum 2.05
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