Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung

Karlsruher Meteorologisches Kolloquium

Dozenten: Prof. Dr. T. Leisner, Prof. Dr. P. Braesicke, Prof. Dr. A. Fink, PD Dr. M. Höpfner, Prof. Dr. C. Hoose, Prof. Dr. P. Knippertz, PD Dr. M. Kunz, Prof. Dr. J. Pinto 

Veranstaltungskalender

 
Kolloquium

Are equatorial waves a practical source of deterministic sub-seasonal predictive skill? Juliana Dias, Maria Gehne and George Kiladis

Donnerstag, 30. November 2023, 15:00-16:00
CS, Gebäude 30.23, 13. OG, Seminarraum 13-02

Propagating equatorial disturbances such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial waves (CCEW) are often seen as potentially useful for sub-seasonal predictions in the tropics and elsewhere via tropical-to-extratropical teleconnections. Quantifying this potential has been proven difficult in numerical weather prediction systems because tropical sub-seasonal variability tends to be poorly represented in such models. One possible exception is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF), which has been recently shown to have much improved representation of sub-seasonal tropical variability. In this study, we use ECMWF reforecasts to investigate the predicted evolution of CCEW and the MJO and how they might relate to sub-seasonal practical and potential forecast skill.  It is shown that systematic model errors in the representation of their amplitude and propagation characteristics strongly limits their role as a deterministic pathway to improve sub-seasonal predictions.

Diese Veranstaltung ist Teil der Reihe Sonderkolloquium
Referent/in
Dr. Juliana Dias

NOAA, USA
Veranstalter
IMK-TRO
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
KIT
Wolfgang-Gaede-Str. 1
76131 Karlsruhe
Tel: 0721 608 43356
E-Mail: imk-tro does-not-exist.kit edu
https://www.imk-tro.kit.edu
Servicemenü

Hinweise

"CS" - KIT-Campus Süd (Universität), Gebäude 30.23 (Physikhochhaus), Seminarraum 13/2

"CN" - KIT-Campus Nord (Forschungszentrum), Gebäude 435 (IMK), Raum 2.05

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