Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung

Seminar über Aerosolphysik (IMK-AAF)

Ansprechpartner: Prof. Dr. T. Leisner, Dr. H. Saathoff, Dr. R. Wagner

Das Seminar findet - soweit nicht extra angekündigt - Montags um 11:00 Uhr im Seminarraum 150 des IMK-Gebäudes 326 (Campus Nord) statt.

Veranstaltungskalender

 
Kolloquium

Can We Perform Extreme Event Attribution with the Current Generation of Climate Models?

Dienstag, 21. Juni 2016, 14:00-15:30
KIT, Campus Süd, Physikhochhaus, Geb. 30.23
3. Stock, Raum 3/1
There is considerable interest in being able to assess the extent to which recent extreme weather events can be linked to anthropogenic climate change. As a result, a number of groups around the world are producing near real-time attribution analyses. But are current generation climate models up to the job? I will argue that they are not - as manifest by the unreliability of monthly and seasonal forecasts. The importance of such reliability diagnostics has been misunderstood in the climate attribution community. I will try to show with an explicit but idealised example why information about monthly/seasonal forecast reliability must be considered central to the question of building climate models that can not only attribute real-time weather events, but can also provide society with reliable information to adapt to climate change. I will discuss some ideas on why current generation climate models are deficient and what we should do to improve them.
Diese Veranstaltung ist Teil der Reihe Karlsruher Meteorologisches Kolloquium
Referent/in
Prof. Tim Palmer

Prof. für Physik des Klimas in Oxford u. Fellow des Jesus College
Abteilungsleiter u Sen. Scientist Europ. Centre for Med.Range Weather Forecasts in Reading
Veranstalter
IMK-TRO
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
KIT
Wolfgang-Gaede-Str. 1
76131 Karlsruhe
Tel: 0721 608 43356
E-Mail: imk-tro does-not-exist.kit edu
https://www.imk-tro.kit.edu
Servicemenü

Hinweise

"CS" - KIT-Campus Süd (Universität), Gebäude 30.23 (Physikhochhaus), Seminarraum 13/2

"CN" - KIT-Campus Nord (Forschungszentrum), Gebäude 435 (IMK), Raum 2.05

(Besucher bitte Personalausweis mitbringen!)