We estimate the consequences of potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future climate driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity acts in the direction opposite to anthropogenic effects and can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming. The model results also show that all considered solar forcings are important in different atmospheric layers and geographical regions; however, the solar irradiance variability can be considered as the most important for global problems. The obtained results constitute probably the upper limit of the possible solar influence. Development of the better constrained set of future solar forcings is necessary to address the problem of future climate and ozone layer state with more confidence.

Diese Veranstaltung ist Teil der Reihe Karlsruher Meteorologisches Kolloquium

Referent/in
Dr. Eugene Rozanov

ETH Zürich
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos und Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science

Veranstalter
Prof. Dr. J. Orphal
IMK-ASF
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Karlsruhe
Tel: +49 721 608 29121
Fax: +49 721 608 24742
E-Mail: johannes orphal ∂does-not-exist.kit edu

Zielgruppe
Wissenschaftliche Mitarbeitende