Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung

Seminar über Aerosolphysik (IMK-AAF)

Ansprechpartner: Prof. Dr. T. Leisner, Dr. H. Saathoff, Dr. R. Wagner

Das Seminar findet - soweit nicht extra angekündigt - Montags um 11:00 Uhr im Seminarraum 150 des IMK-Gebäudes 326 (Campus Nord) statt.

Veranstaltungskalender

 
Kolloquium

Predictability of convective precipitation during COPS

Dienstag, 31. Mai 2011, 16:00-0:00
KIT Campus Süd
Geb. 30.23 (Physikhochhaus), Seminarraum 13/2
The accurate prediction of convective precipitation is a fundamental challenge for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This is because convective storms are highly sensitive to uncertainties in the initial/boundary conditions that drive the models as well as the representation of subgrid-scale processes. One approach to addressing these uncertainties is through ensembles that capture the spread of convective responses to a range of initial conditions and/or subgrid physics representations. In this study, we adopt such an approach to investigate the predictability of two convection events from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) in 2007 using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The two events included an isolated storm initiated by thermally-driven convergence over the Black Forest (IOP8b, 15th July) and a squall line that waned and then regenerated over the COPS region (IOP9c, 20th July). These high-resolution, initial-condition ensembles were generated by embedding a series of progressively finer nests (12 km, 4 km, and 1 km) into the operational UM ensemble (24 km at the time). In both cases, the default ensemble exhibited pronounced biases due to errors in the representation of subgrid-scale processes. However, the ensemble approach combined with the extensive observational network in COPS allowed these errors to be systematically identified and corrected, yielding new ensembles that provided more accurate realizations of the convection events. Using compositing and ensemble-sensitivity methods, the sensitivity of the convective precipitation to details of the larger-scale flow, particularly the structure and position of upper-level potential-vorticity anomalies, was quantified.
Diese Veranstaltung ist Teil der Reihe Karlsruher Meteorologisches Kolloquium
Referent/in
Dr. Daniel Kirshbaum

University of Reading, Reading UK
Department of Meteorology
Veranstalter
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19
82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen
E-Mail: hape schmid does-not-exist.imk kit edu
Servicemenü

Hinweise

"CS" - KIT-Campus Süd (Universität), Gebäude 30.23 (Physikhochhaus), Seminarraum 13/2

"CN" - KIT-Campus Nord (Forschungszentrum), Gebäude 435 (IMK), Raum 2.05

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